Saturday, September 22, 2012

Terrorism in Pakistan; Causes, Effects, Solutions




Once a convicted "terrorist", Nelson Mandela, wrote in his autobiography: "the hard facts were that 50 years of non-violence had brought (my) people nothing but more repressive legislation, and fewer rights".

If the world leaders do not believe that global fairness, peace and human dignity is in the best interest of the global community, then our fate may indeed be akin to the vision of Shelly's

And each dweller, panic-stricken,
Felt his heart with terror sicken....

Terrorism- either by the state or by the non state actors, is the cruelest of crimes which kills less criminals but more innocent citizens. Terrorism has no absolute and globally accepted definition. If simply stated, terror is extreme or intense fear. It is a psychological state, which combines the physical and mental efforts to create dread and insecurity.

Globally Accepted Definition:


Acts committed with the aim of seriously intimidating a population, forcing a government or international organization to abstain from performing any act, or seriously destabilizing or destroying the fundamental political, constitutional, economic or social structures of country or an international organization.

State Terrorism to counter terrorism:

When the whole world is in the cruel jaws of it, this reality cannot be curtailed through the more terrorism by the state; as many countries of the present world are trying to do it in this way. The obvious example of Kashmir and Palestine speak horrors of inhuman acts. Interior Motives of US Was on Terrorism:

If we take a look political disputes like Iraq, Afghanistan, the Interior motives of was on terrorism are:

· To get hold of natural resources of Muslim countries, either by the policy of friendship or confrontation.

· To malign Muslim freedom struggles like movements going on such as in Kashmir, Chechnya, Palestine.

· To damage the ideology of Islam specially Jihad to project Islam as a religion of intolerance. The fear factor is that Islam still is spreading in the West at a faster pace, 4500 embraced Islam after 9/11.

· To stop the rise of orthodox Muslim governments. They are doing it in the name of democracy.

They are changing the elected governments. E.g. Iran’s government is being isolated by imposing sanctions. They are there to protect monarchies in Gulf States.

· To ensure a greater Israel on Arab Land for the satisfaction of American Jewish lobby.

· To spread its own culture. If a nation dies it’s a national death but if a nation dies of cultural death, It’s all over. The United State is permeated its culture in the countries on the name of terrorism. As in Iraq, they made dance clubs in the Green Zone. The uniform of new force of Iraq i.e. identical as it matched with USA.

· To check the unclear technology of the Muslim countries like Iran and Pakistan.


Causes of terrorism in Pakistan:

The sectarian anti-Shiite militant groups like the Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan were preaching hatred against the Shiite Muslims and employing some terrorist activities. The extremist sectarian intolerance came to Pakistan only after 1979 revolution in Iran. The Iranian revolution emboldened the Shiite Muslims of Pakistan against their suffering at the hands of anti-Shiite groups. This was further aggravated when a Sunni-dominated Iraq with the backing of the USA and Saudi Arabia waged a war upon Shiite dominated Iran.

The soviet Afghanistan War was the most critical event responsible for spreading militancy and intolerance in Pakistan. In order to fight proxy war against the Soviets, the US and the Arab countries provided the funds for serving The Mujahedeen who were motivated for battle through religious propaganda urging them to expel the infidels from Afghanistan. The aftermath of the Soviet withdrawal exposed the damage, transformation of violence, and weaponisation into Pakistan society.

The armed freedom struggle surfaced in Kashmir during the eighties gave the resistors a continued reason to be present in the region, which was exploited by Pakistan. Therefore after 9/11, when a ban was put on these fighters, they turned their guns towards their adopted country.

The Internal Factors:

Pakistan is fighting against the menace of terrorism on both the fronts; external as well as internal. The derailing of democracy has had a preformed impact on Pakistani society. One cause is political deprivation, political alienation, leading to hopelessness, and sense of powerlessness, which then leads on to these terrorist acts.

In reality, the economy of Pakistan, replete with corruption, has disturbed the distribution of wealth. Dishonesty, bribery, the drug trade and other malpractices are common to make easy money. Black money has created new moneyed class in the society distributing the balance of social structure.

This factor alone is ideal for the infiltration of terrorists in various segments of society. The sense of deprivation among the small provinces, their feelings of social injustice and discrimination are serious indicators of imbalance. Polarization based on various castes, classes, religious affinities liable to be manipulated by the anti-state forces.

The prevalent system of education is a colonial legacy and has not been completely customized to meet the ideological, modern, scientific and progressive needs of the country. It also does not address the ideals of Islam to rise above the narrow divisions, at times the media communicates manipulated news and ideas, which causes sensationalism,

Madressas centers of hate-preaching to young minds is the critical part of the problem. The economic factors has been a major cause of religious exploitation of a sizable segment of middle/lower middle class of the society.

The Zamindars and Jagirdars own 32 percent pf the privately cultivated land. Due to the increase in general awareness, a suppressed community often rises violently against this injustice leading to extremism in the society.

A weak judicial system and judiciary are also responsible for these unwanted tendencies. The judiciary is digital registration of the national data base is a major security. (NADRA) has been established, it is still found wanting. Incomplete facility is a contributory factor in harboring terrorists/miscreants responsible for the rise of militancy.

Causes at international Level :

Unresolved political disputes:
 

In the hot disputes of the world, Muslims are being isolated and indiscriminately treated in the conflicts. Ineffectiveness of UNO. To avert any other international war. The dispute if resolved in UNO, the terrorism was not prevailed as it is. Universal law of cause and effect:

State terrorism will produce obviously terrorism. Double standards of the West

On one hand, previously when Afghan Jihad was going on they were projected as heroes and then became terrorists. Distrust between Muslims and the westerns. Extremist activities by some terrorist groups, like Al Qaeda. The pride of US as being unipolar. The Muslim world is victim of illiteracy, ignorance, poverty, intolerance and sectarianism.

Stance of Al-Qaida:

Its ideology is shaped by the belief that Islam is being degraded and humiliated by "western" values, with particular disgust reserved for those Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which are close allies of the US. The plight of the Palestinians is a rallying call for al-Qaeda whose central goal is to expel Americans from Muslim lands and dismantle pro-US Middle Eastern governments. To this end all US citizens and their sympathisers are to be killed, regardless of whether or not they are Muslim.

This fanaticism adopted by Bin Laden and his closest associates is often described as jihadism and is believed to have been inspired by an Egyptian radical, Sayyid Qutb, who opposed the Nasser regime. Fighting alongside the conservative Taliban in Afghanistan may have been a further influence on bin Laden.

The manic ideology of al-Qaeda has no roots in mainstream Islam which shares core values of peace and tolerance with the world's major religions. The holy Koran teaches that the killing of innocent humans is a crime and that suicide is unacceptable.

Attention is focused on the influence of institutions of Islamic education which in a small minority of cases advocate extreme views which "radicalise" students into beliefs which are inconsistent with mainstream Islam.

This is believed to flourish especially in Pakistan where inadequate funding of state education has allowed unregulated madrasa religious education to take hold.

The sense of political impotence created by inadequate democracy and corrupt governance.

Addressing the huge crowd gathered to celebrate his inauguration, President Obama said this:

"To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West – know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy."
In Europe, there are suggestions that young Muslims from immigrant families suffer identity problems in reconciling differences between western lifestyles and their upbringing.

The Bush administration packaged counter-terrorism as "the war on terror" with references to a crusade. In choosing language which conjured the specter of a clash between Christian and Muslim civilisations, the Americans reinforced rather than undermined al-Qaeda ideology

The disaster of the Iraq war has presented unimaginable gifts to the terrorist cause. The decision to invade the country reinforced al-Qaeda accusations of western interference in Muslim territories whilst the abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib undermined US claims to moral superiority.


HOW DID TALIBAN RE-EMERGED ?

Many Taliban escaped the hund at the time and went underground mixing up in the local Pashtuns. They later re-emerged in the past two years and have inflicted heavy losses on coalition forces as well as Pakistani forces. The focus of the US forces after the fall of the Taliban government remained on Al-Qaeda rather than both.

Whereas the US and NATO moved into Kabul and Northern Afghanistan, which was comparatively peaceful, no serious efforts were made to extend toward South, where the Taliban got an opportunity to regroup in their stronghold.

Pakistan was forced to move its armed forces to the eastern border to protect its integrity. Taking advantage of the situation on both sides of the border, the Taliban were able to regroup in south and east Afghanistan as well as in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

The last UNSG report on Afghanistan highlights that the corruption, opium production, lawlessness, and human rights violations are all on the increase. There are numerous internal and external factors, which make the war complex particularly for Pakistan.

The regional dynamics, culture, customs, treacherous and inaccessible terrain with porous border are main features of the area and the people.


American Failure in Afganistan:

Despite the military endeavor by the United States (US) and its allies, under Operation Enduring Freedom for the last eight years, violence increased by 543 percent till 2009. The Taliban-led insurgency has spread and according to an estimate almost 70 per cent of the country have become “no-go areas for security forces, government officials and aid workers.”

The inability of the international community to stabilize Afghanistan is clearly an outcome of the inadequate and short sighted policies of George W. Bush, who embarked on the military campaign in Afghanistan. Karzai was a choice of the Bush administration, but because of his inability to rein in rampant corruption, the flourishing drug trade, and the inability of his government to deliver basic services.
NATO’s presence in Afghanistan is in body and not in soul.

The resurgence of the Taliban in Southern and Eastern Afghanistan increases the military burden of US-led NATO forces in defeating the Taliban. Yet divisions within the transatlantic alliance are growing because of the divergence in perception about the stakes in Afghanistan between NATO’s European members and Washington. While Washington demands greater burden sharing, the Europeans are hesitant. This is a dilemma confronting the West.

Drone Attacks

President Bush ordered the creation of this CIA operation (which fires drone missiles guided by remote control at individuals it believes to be leaders of Al Qaeda or the Taliban).

The Pakistani government responded by calling on Obama to review this missile strike policy "and adopt a more holistic and integrated approach.”

Pakistan, with its fragile domestic situation, cannot afford such abuses of its national sovereignty to continue. Anger against the US has been inflamed in Pakistan as more civilians have died.
Dozens of missile strikes, instead of simply eliminating people thought to be an enemy inevitably create new enemies.
Suicide Bombers:

The dark complexity of suicide attacks has exposed inadequacies of security forces, moral philosophers, psychologists and theologians alike. Although suicide attacks are particularly associated with al-Qaeda ideology, they have been adopted by the Tamil Tigers, by militant groups in Iraq and also recently by the Taliban.


New Afgan Policy

In his speech, President Obama promised to extend an "open hand" to the world and to pursue diplomacy to improve international relations. Obama has taken important steps: he has ordered the closure of Guantanamo, appointed a special envoy to oversee the administration's interest in a permanent settlement in the Middle East, ordered the first steps for withdrawal from Iraq, and overturned the Bush philosophy of "either you're with us or against us."

Obama said his country does not want to keep its troops in Afghanistan. “Make no mistake: we do not want to keep our troops in Afghanistan. We seek no military bases there,” he said.

Sending US 30,000 troops, total 98,000. leaving Afnasitan till july, 2011.

Obama admits US does not want to occupy but want to capteure Al-Qaeda, US cannot afford such a along war. 

US forces can attack areas (also Balochistan) of Pakistan to hunt down Al-Qaeda. Later, Bill Gates made it clear, “ US can not violate the soverignity of Pakistan.”

Ananlsis:

President Barack Obama said that US success in Afghanistan, where he plans to deploy 30,000 more troops, was ‘inextricably linked’ to Washington’s partnership with Pakistan.

‘We will act with the full recognition that our success in Afghanistan is inextricably linked to our partnership with Pakistan,’

We are in Afghanistan to prevent a cancer from once again spreading through that country. But this same cancer has also taken root in the border region of Pakistan.’ he said.

He added,
‘But in recent years, as innocents have been killed from Karachi to Islamabad, it has become clear that it is the Pakistani people who are the most endangered by extremism. Public opinion has turned.’

The Pakistani army has waged an offensive in Swat and South Waziristan. And there is no doubt that the United States and Pakistan share a common enemy,’ he said.

Positive: time frame to exit. Clearing that US does not want to occupy


Americans Allegations:


Obama has maintained that the future US efforts “must refocus” on “Afghanistan and Pakistan -- the central front in our war against Al Qaeda”. Sanctuaries on the Pakistan side of the Afghan-Pakistan border supply and train the assault on Afghanistan and the allied forces there.

In particular, U.S. officials would like Pakistan to crackdown on the leadership of the Afghan Taliban believed to be based in Quetta and two major factions of the Afghan insurgency led by veteran Afghan warlords, Jalaluddin Haqqani and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

These, U.S. officials believe, are actively engaged in supplying fighters in Afghanistan. They further accuse, Pakistan's strategy is to support groups against India and to project influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan denies these charges. 


Interests of External Players in Afghanistan

The main US interest is to stop the spread of religious fundamentism and terrorism coming from Afghanistan. It is also in US interest to check the flow of narcotics emanating from poppy fields of Afghanistan. The presence of US forces in Afghanistan is aimed at long desired policy to contain China. The economic issue that drives Washington’s interests is the potential oil resources of the Caspian Basin region. Russia wants to protect the vulnerability of bordering the CARs against the threat of Islamic extremism emanating from Afghanistan. India wishes to exploit the prevailing international anti-terrorism sentiments to here advantage. However, India would like to benefit from proposed oi-gas pipline project running through Afghanistan and Pakistan to meet here fast growing energy needs. Iran has a major concern in protecting the interests of Shiite minority in Afghanistan: therefore, predominately non-Pashtun government in Kabul is in Iran’s strategic interest. It is in Iran’s interest that Afghanistan should remain relatively unstable, so as to strengthen the case for running the pipelines through Iran. The CARS particularly Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan would like to see a stable Afghanistan to enable them to pass their oil and gas pipelines to warm water ports of the Arabian Sea.


This problem is further compounded by the weapon friendly culture of the area, easement rights that allow free cross border movement of the Tribal without any documents add to the complexities. The local religious leaders are also a source of irritation for the operations by the army. The army is generally accused of not doing enough to stop the cross border movement of the Taliban.

The other external factor is the growing Indian Influence in Afghanistan’s cities bordering Pakistan, which is playing a negative role in the war against terror. To check cross border movement of militants is another important factor. The effective sealing of such porous is only possible if strong measures are adopted on the border by both sides. 


WHAT TERRORISM HAS DONE (International Perspective)?

Bush administration claimed “to make world safer”. But it did in opposite manner. Obama has accepted that they can not afford a long war in Afghanistan. New Afghan policy has given exit strategy.

Worldwide Fear- Murder of Benazir, Mumbai attacks, Pak-India tension, and London bomb blasts.

Economic Losses to the world. Increased defense budget

The United Nations was sidelined. The prestige attached to UNO was ended.

The Muslim country’s nuclear ambitions were strictly checked as in Iran. 

Huntington’s Clash of the Civilizations. This theory came to be true. “The battle line would be drawn on tenets lines of civilization”. As Jews v/s Muslims, Hindus v/s Muslims, Islam and the West etc.


EFFECTS ON PAKISTAN:

Afghan refugees US military strikes the NWFP influences. Taliban are increasing. Taliban elements and their mentors Al—Qaeda, moved into the major cities. 

It has forced the state to station many divisions of army for law and order at the cost of earning the opprobrium of “use of force” against terroists in SWAT and FATA. The loss of foreign direct investment and tourism. Visa and job opportunities for Pakistan is from these areas to the Middle East are being increasingly curtailed.

The rugged border terrain of nearly 1,500 Km at the height of 10,000 to 15,000 feet, with no communication infrastructure, has enabled the foreign elements to fully exploit the situation. Pakistan has dispatched almost 70-80,000 of troops to the tribal regions. 

This preparation has to be dispelled that fight against terrorism is a now form of warfare where the attackers are insidious, elusive and yet create sense of create sense of intimidation and terror.

On the political side, Pakistan’s international political isolation ceased immediately and it assumed the role of front line state yet again. Despite the AQ Khan nuclear proliferation crisis, the US gave Pakistan the status of ‘Major Non-Nato Ally’, offered Kerry-Lugar Bill.


Debate in Pakistan either war against terror is ours or of US.

Acute economic crisis. Pakistan has adversely affected by terrorism than any other country of the world. Although, Pakistan is a victim of terrorism is being labeled as a state sponsoring terrorism.

Lot of time and energy of Pakistan is being consumed to make world understand that Pakistan is not the sponsor of terrorism but it is a victim, and while doing so it is being forced to make compromises on vital interests. Even the friendly countries like China, Iran, and Indonesia started looking towards Pakistan with suspicion. 

As far as NATO operations in Afghanistan are concerned, they are limited by inadequate number of troops, and with difficulties of terrain primitive tribal culture, weapon stocks and drug money. The Taliban are resurgent. In fact it is a cumulative effect of many factors: due to divisions of resources to Iraq war, NATO’s insufficient level of troops, rise in opium trade, limited control of Karzai government around Kabul, poor governance, high level of corruption and unemployment, lack of reconstruction, rise in violence and rampant warlordism. A nagging perception in some quarters in the West, especially the US, that Pakistan is not “doing enough”.

Solutions:

In fact, no military solution from the air or ground will ever be found to solve the deplorable conditions – grinding poverty and benign neglect – that breed violence, hatred and rebellion.

Obama should avoid Bush’s Policies of use of force to avoid further military and financial losses.

Involving UNSC & OIC would be in the interest of US to minimize anti US sentiments in the Muslim world.

Interfaith dialogue can clear the misconceptions against each other.

Solution of issues like Kashmir and Palestine The Muslims should discourage extremist groups in their social life. Madressa reforms Positive role of world media

“There is no silver bullet that can address global terrorism in all its complexity,” writs

Maleeha Lodhi in “The Threats of all Threats”.

Every continent has seen acts of terrorism. Perpetrators belong to diverse backgrounds, ethnicities and faiths.

She proposed a broad-gauge counter-terrorism strategy based on nine ‘Cs’.

1) Comprehensiveness: A comprehensive, multifaceted strategy is needed that encompasses law enforcement, political, social, cultural, financial and diplomatic measures.

2) Consensus at the global level is required on a strategy incorporating both short-and long-terms

3) Causes and conditions that breed, encourage and contribute to terrorism must be objectively identified and addressed.

4) Confusion about the definition of terrorism and mixing every Muslim with terror is discouraging.

5) Capabilities must be improved and national capacities strengthened across he spectrum to pursue terrorists and prevent terrorist activities.

6) Cooperative rather than coercive national and international strategies should be pursued so that the reaction to counter-terrorism measures does not compound the problem.

7) Civil liberties and principles of good governance must be upheld in the fight against terror, because real security can only be achieved through respect for human rights.

8) Civilization and cultural: dialogue and understanding including engaging at the battle for the hearts and minds, must become an integral part of global consensus-building to evolve a joint strategy. Such a dialogue must be premised on the understanding that the root cause of friction between civilization are not primarily religious differences, but mainly issues of power, competing political and economic interests, policies and misunderstandings.

9) Conference at the summit level must be called to craft and coordinate an approach based on these elements.

10) There are two dimensions to the problem in Afghanistan- strategic depth and nation building.

11) Militarism was dominant in George Bush’s policy and it was not a comprehensive approach.

12) President Obama’s policy talks about a regional approach and China is important part of this regional concept.


13) The primary reason for the unpopularity of the government in Afghanistan is lack of social development activities.


14) Afghanistan needs to have a force which is sustainable in its own budget.


15) Afghanistan problem cannot be solved in isolation and there is need for comprehensive engagement with getting confidence of Pakistan by stopping Indian interfernce in Afghanistan.


16) The role of SCO in the context of Afghanistan should also be considered while studying this problem.


CONCLUDING REMARKS:

Today terrorism is complex in scope, even across the continents non-state actors. Countering this multi-headed phenomenon require multi-pronged and sustained policy by the governments across the globe.

Deprivation and an unjust political and socioeconomic dispensation rapidly give rise to frustration.

The remedy lies in a tolerant and democratic society. However to enable the United Nations to evolve an effective strategy for this purpose it I imperative to define terrorism that may be acceptable globally. Also make a distinction between terrorism and legitimate struggle for freedom and right of self-determination, the denial of which can breed terrorism and a threat to “peaceful co-existence”.

But Dr. Martin Luther King logically said, “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”



Thursday, August 30, 2012

Talibanization

Outline:

1.Introduction.
2.Different types of Extremism.
3.Characteristics of religious Extremism. 
4.Characteristics of Talibinazation. 
5.Difference between fundamentalism and extremism.
    a.Fundamentalism, rigid but focused on self correction.
    b.Extremism, rigid and cohersive but focused at forcefully molding behavior 
       of others.
6.Roots of Extremism in Pakistani society.
      a.Soviet war in Afghanistan
      b.Rise of Kalashnikov & Drugs culture.
7.Proxy wars of other Muslim countries been fought in Pakistan.
        a.Factors that gave rise to Talibinazation in Pakistan.
        b.Certain areas in Pakistan unchecked by the government.
        c.Inefficiency of law and order agencies to reduce arms and animations 
           in residential areas
        d.Governments unchecked the rise of Madarisa Culture. (no regulation)
        e.Lal Masjid Jamia Hafsa event. 
 8.Reasons of success of Extremism & Talibinazation in Pakistan
         a.Hopelessness and suppression in the Muslim world.
         b. Inability of the political system to deliver.
         c. People losing faith in current form of democracy prevalent in 
            Pakistan.
         d.Deficiency of social justice.
         e.Poverty
         f. Illiteracy and un-education
         g.Different education systems in one country.
         h.Unemployment.
         i.Improper investment in social sector and lack of attention on human  
           development.
 9.Consequences and impacts of extremism on our social and cultural 
    situation
          a.Deteriorating law and order situation and loosening of writ of the 
             government.
          b. Extremism giving birth to terrorism
          c. Threat to internal stability
          d. Culture giving birth to intolerance
          e.Increase in sectarian violence
          f.Social distress
10.Consequences of extremism on the economic environment of Pakistan.
          a.Flight of foreign investment due to environment not conducive for 
             business.
           b.Contraction in economic activity due to violence, strikes and  
              vandalism.
           c.Sole breadwinners of families killed in terrorist attacks. 
 11.Extremism and Talibinazation causing very bad name to Image of 
     pakistan in outside world.
 12.Is military operation a solution to extremism? 
          a. Partly yes – in short term.
          b.Partly not – in long term.
  13. What is needed at Government level?
           o Formulation of policies to remove disparities at socioeconomic level.
           o Investment in social sector.
           o Government initiatives needed to uplift economic activities in  
              backward and war trodden areas.
           o Devise a mechanism for dialogue b/w different schools of thoughts  
              in the religion
           o Standardization of education & regulation Madarisas.
           o Active role of law enforcement agencies for reduction of arms and 
              ammunition.
14.What is needed at private/ individual level?
            o Family is the basic unit for inculcating the norms and values in an 
               individual.
            o Role of Ulema.
            o Role of intellectuals
            o Responsibility of the upper class and well off individuals toward 
               the poor.           
 15.Conclusion. 



Cont...

Thursday, August 16, 2012

GLOBAL WARMING - FACT OR FICTION

Introduction
Greenhouse warming has existed for quite some time, arguably since Earth was first formed. Greenhouse gases, or gases conducive to the greenhouse effect, act like a blanket or the panes of glass in a greenhouse's walls; they reflect the heat the earth would radiate into space back down towards the earth, holding it in. You see, the balance of heat on earth is maintained by different processes. Solar radiation approaches the earth, and clouds and the atmosphere reflect some of it back into space. More radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere, clouds, and the surface of the earth. Then the earth radiates the heat back as infrared radiation. To maintain a certain, constant temperature, the rate that Earth emits energy into space must equal the rate it absorbs the sun's energy. The greenhouse effect's refusal to allow a certain amount of this terrestrial radiation to pass keeps the Earth's average surface temperature at about 60°F (15°C). If there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of the heat radiated by the Earth's surface would be lost directly to outer space, and the planet's temperature would be 0°F (-18°C), too cold for most forms of life (Greenhouse). 
Background
There are several atmospheric gases that act as greenhouse gases (GHGs). The most infamous is carbon dioxide, which is emitted through the respiration of humans and animals, the burning of fossil fuel, deforestation, and other changes in land use. Carbon dioxide is the main focus of many greenhouse gas sanctions, since it is the greenhouse gas that has most been released into the atmosphere. However, some other gases may have a greater effect upon climate than CO2. If one examines research into the possible warming effect of other GHGs relative to CO2, one finds that over a 100-year period, there are gases present in far smaller amounts that have a much more concentrated effect. Methane, a gas produced by livestock (flatulence), oil and gas production, coal mining, solid waste, and wet rice agriculture, has 11 times more warming potential per volume than CO2 (Science), or 25 times more per molecule (Clarkson). Nitrous oxide, produced mainly in connection with current agricultural practices, has 270 times more warming potential per volume over this period than CO2 (Science). Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the gases used as refrigerants and in aerosol spray dispensers that were banned some time back due to their ozone depletion potential, have 3400-7100 times more warming potential per volume than CO2 (Science). Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the CFC substitutes, have a slightly smaller warming potential at 1200-1600 times larger per volume than CO2 (Science). 

And so, as one might infer, studies are showing that additions of GHGs may cause the earth to get warmer than it naturally would. This is what is referred to as anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming. Many times, the terms global warming and climate change are used interchangeably. (We will do the same, for continuity's sake.) But, this is not correct and the concepts are different. Climate change includes precipitation, wind patterns, and temperature. It also refers to the whole climate, not just weather conditions of one place. Global warming is an indication of climate change. It is an example of a climate change that has the atmosphere's average temperature increase. Earth has experienced much warming and much cooling throughout its history. There is a great deal of debate as to whether or not the earth is experiencing a globally warming climate change and, if it is, whether the underlying causes are man-made or natural. Different research has given different results. 


However, even when greenhouse gases were arguably at a stable level, before the onset of the Industrial Revolution, Earth's climate tended to fluctuate widely. A period from 5,000 to 3,000 BC (when civilization began) is called the Climatic Optimum and another period from 900 - 1200 AD is called the Little Climatic Optimum or the Medieval Climatic Optimum, both so named for their unusually warm temperatures. Likewise, a period from 1550 to 1850 is known as the Little Ice Age for its unusually cold temperatures (Pidwirny). At this time, glaciers in southern Norway reached their greatest extent in 9000 years (Keigwin). With such large variations possible, it is difficult to know where the next natural fluctuation could take us. Perhaps those who find that global climate is warming are simply measuring a natural fluctuation. Or perhaps a natural fluctuation is masking the real effect of GHGs on the globe. 

Global Warming: Big Questions, Big Research

  There is a great debate over whether or not humans are causing global warming. Some activists and researchers have resorted to name-calling or accusing the opposing side of having "sold out" to one special interest or another. As mentioned previously, we have attempted to cut away the personal attacks between the opposing sides, search for the kernel of truth (or logic, where truth cannot be discerned), and get down to the heart of the matter. 

In order to properly read any of the reports or research on global climate change, one must keep in mind that nothing (or almost nothing) is certain. Everything has a certain degree of uncertainty, a certain flavor of the unknown. There really is no conclusive evidence of global warming, and many scientists in favor of the global warming hypothesis say that it will be a decade or more before it is possible to develop any substantial evidence. As an anonymous senior climate modeler has said about global warming, "The more you learn, the more you understand that you don't understand very much". Global climate is by nature always fluctuating, and that only adds to the confusion about anthropogenic global warming. If there were an anthropogenic global warming, we couldn't be sure what temperature we were supposed to be at, as climate shifts are a natural part of life on Earth. Compounding that confusion is natural variability, which is always working to confuse researchers just as they come close to attributing a perceived change in average temperature to some external factor, such as atmospheric composition (GHGs) or solar variation. One reason for this variability is the long adjustment time of the oceans' heat storage and current systems. It is estimated to take several hundred years for water to circulate from the deepest portions of the oceans back to the surface. This means that if, for example, a pool of extra cold water is singled out and stored in the depths by some freak mechanism, it could stay there a century or two before resurfacing and producing a local, cool climate change .

 Since no one can create another Earth (let alone one that behaves exactly like ours) and perform atmosphere-altering experiments on it, we are left with the alternative of theorizing based on observations. In other words, the only way we can purport to know anything about what might be changing in our climate is by playing with data, such as records of temperature, borehole measurements, etc., and seeing what scenarios the data will agree with. 

Most of the body of global warming theory is based on computerized climate models called global circulation models or GCMs, for they are almost the only tools global warming researchers have. GCMs are difficult to make as making them properly involves a deep-rooted understanding of the way the atmosphere works and how its actions are interconnected with other planetary bodies, such as the oceans or the terrestrial biosphere. But our understanding of the inner workings of the atmosphere and the ways it relates to other planetary bodies is not very good.

GCMs are made by formulating mathematical descriptions of the interrelationships between the atmosphere/ocean/biosphere/cryosphere system and conducting numerical experiments. They certainly are unable to form a mathematical description based on the kind of interconnections, or feedbacks, that the butterfly effect would suggest. Indeed, "in the climate system, there are 14 orders of magnitude, from the planetary scale--which is 40 million meters--down to the scale of one of the little aerosol particles on which water vapor can change phase to a liquid [cloud particle]--which is a fraction of a millionth of a millimeter." Of these 14 orders of magnitude, only the two largest (the planetary scale and the scale of weather disturbances) can currently be included in models. to include the third order of magnitude (the scale of thunderstorms, at about 50 km resolution) a computer a thousand times faster would be necessary, "a teraflops machine that maybe we'll have in 5 years." Including all orders of magnitude would require 1036-1037 times more computing power .

Lately, a model has been designed and tested at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to eliminate the flux corrections. This model better incorporates the effects of ocean eddies, not by shrinking the scale, but by parameterization, passing the effects of these invisible eddies onto larger model scales using a more realistic means of mixing hear through the ocean that any earlier model did. This model doesn't drift off into chaos even after 300 years of running. This model gives a 2oC rise in temperature due to a CO2 doubling. (Some of the more popular GCMs assume that the concentration of CO2 will double in 70 years or quadruple in 140 years and use the assumption to try to predict what the climate will be like in decades or even centuries based on that doubling or quadrupling.) This figure is on the low side of estimates and puts the model's sensitivity to greenhouse gases near the low end of current model estimates . 

GCMs are very sensitive to the representations of the effects of clouds and oceans, as their effects are complex and not understood well. While some GCMs are being specially made to simulate water behavior in clouds, limited vertical resolution (i.e., they don't go up far enough) and coarse horizontal resolution (i.e., the cloud activity of large areas of the Earth is averaged together and this average is used for the entire area) prevent even these models from accurately covering thin clouds and some cloud formation processes. Most early simulations were run with fixed cloud distributions based on observed cloud cover data, but these fixed levels didn't allow any feedback between cloud distributions and changing atmospheric/oceanic temperatures and motions. Problems in cloud feedback are seen as the Achilles heel of GCMs. Likewise, ocean representations were initially crude; in some early models, a swamp (stagnant, heat-absorbing, heat and water vapor-releasing body of water) was used as the oceanic model. Later models had a 50 meter thick slab of ocean that allowed summertime heat storage and wintertime heat release. While not including ocean currents (caused by the movement of heat to colder areas of ocean), these models attempted to represent seasonal responses to temperature in the upper ocean, but the lack of currents resulted in tropical oceans being too hot and polar regions too cold. Even today's most sophisticated, computationally-intense climate models are still just numerically experimental approximations of the exceedingly complex atmosphere/ocean/biosphere/cryosphere system. And yet, these GCMs are the basis of global warming theory, if for no other reason than the near-impossibility of conducting physical experiments at the global level (Cotton & Pielke). 

Even while the satellites may need adjustments in their data for changes in orbit, this data is still more accurate than surface data. Satellites do not have anything in their surroundings to skew the data. On the other hand, many sources of error exist here on Earth. Things as seemingly minuscule as variation in the color and type of paint used for the instrument shelters can skew data slightly, for different types and colors of paint absorb small but differing amounts of solar radiation. As another example, the urban heat island effect is known to make cities warmer at night and milder during the day.  If this bias exists in the global climate data set, its use to represent a wider geographic record for climate change studies will be misleading. 

Another largely-ignored factor affecting temperature data is solar variation, or periodic changes in the brightness of the sun based on sunspots and the like. Some climate modelers say that the Sun only varies with an 11-year cycle, and this period is too fast for the climate system to respond to.  But  poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especally changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and other land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from GHGs alone". 



Effects of Global Warming on Our Everyday Lives

Another area where uncertainty rears its head is in the realm of the "real life" effects of global warming. The possible effects of global warming have been played out in the media: hurricanes, plagues, a great increase in sea level, etc. Some scientists refute these claims. But, again, since the climate models can tell us little with much certainty, we can not know for certain if a global warming would have these effects or not. 

Some researchers claim that global warming will lead to an increase in violent storms such as hurricanes and typhoons. But,  warming should actually lead to a reduction in these storms as the equator-to-pole temperature differences diminish, for it is this atmospheric temperature heterogeneity that drives storms and makes them strong. 

Some,  do say that warming could cause the mosquito carrying dengue fever and yellow fever to migrate northward, causing epidemics.Cholera (which is known to live in sea-borne plankton),  could become epidemic in America as changes in marine ecology favor the growth and transmission of the pathogen. Another group of researchers, went a step further and blamed an El Niño warming of the Pacific at least partially for a 1991 Latin American cholera epidemic affecting 500,000 and killing almost 5,000. But cholera is known to spread from humans to other humans through food, water, and feces; this is why cholera epidemics appear when public health and sanitation break down. CDC medical epidemiologist Fred Angulo stated that "We had a powder keg ready to explode, an entire continent in which the sanitation and public water supplies and everything was primed for transmission of this organism once it was introduced," possibly by ships emptying bilge water near fishing areas. He adds that cholera has been introduced into the US several times in the past few years; it didn't spread "because we have a public health and sanitation infrastructure that prevents it." 

As for the mosquito-borne diseases,   the predictions suffer from many levels of uncertainty. No one disputes that weather patterns have an impact: "There's reason to believe that if it's an extremely rainy spring, summer mosquito populations will increase," but  no one knows just how patterns of temperature and rainfall will change in a warmer world, or how these changes will affect the biology of diseases. Paul Epstein has attributed Latin American dengue epidemics in 1994 and 1995 to El Niño and global warming, but experts on dengue at the Pan American Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say these epidemics resulted from a breakdown in programs to eradicate the specific species of mosquito responsible and its subsequent return. The epidemics once caused by mosquitoes in the US have vanished due to mosquito control, eradication programs, piped-water systems, and lifestyle changes ( good housing, air conditioning, and television to keep us inside, and screens to keep the mosquitoes outside).

Other areas of life global warming has an effect upon are those affected by attempts to stop global warming. Some people suggest that small changes, such as using high-efficiency compact fluorescent lights, using self-powered or public transportation more often, etc., could make a big impact on the global warming problem (assuming it exists). This would go along with the idea expressed by some scientists that the only actions that should be taken until there is more certainty are those that would (or should) be taken anyway . But will people do these things if they don't have to? Some other scientists are more pessimistic. 

Let's assume for a moment that there is a global warming occurring. If this is anthropogenic global warming and it will have a negative impact on climate and life, then we must take action. If this is not anthropogenic global warming and warming will have a negative effect on climate and life, nothing can be done. If there is no anthropogenic global warming and the warming will not have a negative effect on climate and life, nothing need be done. Likewise, if humans have caused the global warming but it will not have a negative impact on climate and life, no action is necessary. 

But there is one other dimension to choosing what to do: assuming that anthropogenic global warming is occurring and it will negatively impact climate and life, one must weigh the costs and benefits of maintaining that risk against the costs and benefits of action.

Fact and Fiction:

FICTION: Even if the Earth is warming, we can’t be sure how much, if any, of the warming is caused by human activities.

FACT: There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to human activities, not natural causes. Over millions of years, animals and plants lived, died and were compressed to form huge deposits of oil, gas and coal. In little more than 300 years, however, we have burned a large amount of this storehouse of carbon to supply energy.

Today, the by-products of fossil fuel use – billions of tons of carbon (in the form of carbon dioxide), methane, and other greenhouse gases – form a blanket around the Earth, trapping heat from the sun, unnaturally raising temperatures on the ground, and steadily changing our climate.

The impacts associated with this deceptively small change in temperature are evident in all corners of the globe. There is heavier rainfall in some areas, and droughts in others. Glaciers are melting, Spring is arriving earlier, oceans are warming, and coral reefs are dying.

FICTION: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts an increase in the global average temperature of only 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the coming century.
This small change, less than the current daily temperature range for most major cities, is hardly cause for concern.

FACT: Global average temperature is calculated from temperature readings around the Earth. While temperature does vary considerably at a daily level in any one place, global average temperature is remarkably constant. According to analyses of ice cores, tree rings, pollen and other “climate proxies,” the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere had varied up or down by only a few tenths of a degree Celsius between 1000 AD and about 1900, when a rapid warming began.

A global average temperature change ranging from 1.4°C to 5.8°C would translate into climate-related impacts that are much larger and faster than any that have occurred during the 10 000-year history of civilization.

From scientific analyses of past ages, we know that even small global average temperature changes can lead to large climate shifts. For example, the average global temperature difference between the end of the last ice age (when much of the Northern Hemisphere was buried under thousands of feet of ice) and today’s interglacial climate is only about 5°C .

FICTION: Warming cannot be due to greenhouse gases, since changes in temperature and changes in greenhouse gas emissions over the past century did not occur simultaneously.

FACT: The slow heating of the oceans creates a significant time lag between when carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere and when changes in temperature occur.

This is one of the main reasons why we don’t see changes in temperature at the same time as changes in greenhouse gas emissions. You can see the same process occur in miniature when you heat up a pot of water on the stove: there is a time lag between the time you turn on the flame and when the water starts to boil.

In addition, there are many other factors that affect year-to-year variation in the Earth’s temperature. For example, volcanic eruptions, El Niсo, and small changes in the output of the sun can all affect the global climate on a yearly basis.
Therefore, you would not expect the build-up of greenhouse gases to exactly match trends in global climate. Still, scientific evidence points clearly to anthropogenic (or human-made) greenhouse gases as the main culprit for climate change.

FICTION: Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere fairly quickly, so if global warming turns out to be a problem, we can wait to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions until after we start to see the impacts of warming.

FACT: Carbon dioxide, a gas created by the burning of fossil fuels (like gasoline and coal), is the most important human-made greenhouse gas.
Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel use is produced in huge quantities and can persist in our atmosphere for as long as 200 years.

This means that if emissions of carbon dioxide were halted today, it would take centuries for the amount of carbon dioxide now in the atmosphere to come down to what it was in pre-industrial times. Thus we need to act now if we want to avoid the increasingly dangerous consequences of climate change in the future.

FICTION: Human activities contribute only a small fraction of carbon dioxide emissions, an amount too small to have a significant effect on climate, particularly since the oceans absorb most of the extra carbon dioxide emissions.

FACT: Before human activities began to dramatically increase carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted from natural sources closely matched the amount that was stored or absorbed through natural processes.
For example, as forests grow, they absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis; this carbon is then sequestered in wood, leaves, roots and soil. Some carbon is later released back to the atmosphere when leaves, roots and wood die and decay.

Carbon dioxide also cycles through the ocean Plankton living at the ocean’s surface absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis. The plankton and animals that eat the plankton then die and fall to the bottom of the ocean. As they decay, carbon dioxide is released into the water and returns to the surface via ocean currents. As a result of these natural cycles, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air had changed very little for 10,000 years. But that balance has been upset by man.

Since the Industrial Revolution, the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil has put about twice as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than is naturally removed by the oceans and forests. This has resulted in carbon dioxide levels building up in the atmosphere.

Today, carbon dioxide levels are 30% higher than pre-industrial levels, higher than they have been in the last 420,000 years and are probably at the highest levels in the past 20 million years. Studies of the Earth’s climate history have shown that even small, natural changes in carbon dioxide levels were generally accompanied by significant shifts in the global average temperature.

We have already experienced a 1°F increase in global temperature in the past century, and we can expect significant warming in the next century if we fail to act to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

FICTION: The Earth has warmed rapidly in the past without dire consequences, so society and ecosystems can adapt readily to any foreseeable warming.

FACT: The Earth experienced rapid warming in some places at the end of the last glacial period, but for the last 10,000 years our global climate has been relatively stable. During this period, as agriculture and civilization developed, the world’s population has grown tremendously. Now, many heavily populated areas, such as urban centers in low-lying coastal zones, are highly vulnerable to climate shifts.

In addition, many ecosystems and species that are already threatened by existing pressures (such as pollution, habitat conversion and degradation) may be further pressured to the point of extinction by a changing climate.

FICTION: The buildup of carbon dioxide will lead to a “greening” of the Earth because plants can utilize the extra carbon dioxide to speed their growth.

FACT: Carbon dioxide has been shown to act as a fertilizer for some plant species under some conditions. In addition, a longer growing season (due to warmer temperatures) could increase productivity in some regions.

However, there is also evidence that plants can acclimatize to higher carbon dioxide levels – that means plants may grow faster for only a short time before returning to previous levels of growth.

Another problem is that many of the studies in which plant growth increased due to carbon dioxide fertilization were done in greenhouses where other nutrients, which plants need to survive, were adequately supplied.

In nature, plant nutrients like nitrogen as well as water are often in short supply. Thus, even if plants have extra carbon dioxide available, their growth might be limited by a lack of water and nutrients. Finally, climate change itself could lead to decreased plant growth in many areas because of increased drought, flooding and heat waves.

Whatever benefit carbon dioxide fertilization may bring, it is unlikely to be anywhere near enough to counteract the adverse impacts of a rapidly changing climate.

FICTION: If Earth has warmed since pre-industrial times, it is because the intensity of the sun has increased.

FACT: The sun’s intensity does vary. In the late 1970’s, sophisticated technology was developed that can directly measure the sun’s intensity. Measurements from these instruments show that in the past 20 years the sun’s variations have been very small.

Indirect measures of changes in sun’s intensity since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1750 show that variations in the sun’s intensity do not account for all the warming that occurred in the 20th century and that the majority of the warming was caused by an increase in human-made greenhouse gas emissions.

FICTION: It is hard enough to predict the weather a few days in advance. How can we have any confidence in projections of climate a hundred years from now?

FACT: Climate and weather are different. Weather refers to temperatures, precipitation and storms on a given day at a particular place. Climate reflects a long-term average, sometimes over a very large area, such as a continent or even the entire Earth.

Averages over large areas and periods of time are easier to estimate than the specific characteristics of weather.
For example, although it is notoriously difficult to predict if it will rain or the exact temperature of any particular day at a specific location, we can predict with relative certainty that on average, in the Northeastern United States, it will be colder in December than in July.

In addition, climate models are now sophisticated enough to be able to recreate past climates, including climate change over the last hundred years. This adds to our confidence that projections of future climates are accurate.

Finally, when we report climate projections, we use a range of results from climate models that represent the boundaries of our projections (what’s the least global average temperature could change to what’s the most global average temperature could change) and our degree of certainty of the projections.

FICTION: The science of global climate change cannot tell us the amount by which man-made emissions of greenhouse gases should be reduced in order to slow global warming.

FACT: The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change states that emissions of greenhouse gases should be reduced to avoid “dangerous interference with the climate system.” Scientists have subsequently attempted to define what constitutes “dangerous interference.”
One study (O’Neill and Oppenheimer, 2002) supplies three criteria that could be used:

1) risk to threatened ecosystems such as coral reefs

2) large-scale disruptions caused by changes in the climate system, such as sea-level rise caused by the break-up of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and

3) large-scale disruptions of the climate system itself, such as the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (the Gulf stream), which would result in a severe drop in temperature to Europe.

This study projects that if C02 concentrations are capped at 450 parts per million (ppm), major disruptions to climate systems may be avoided, although some damage (such as that to coral reefs) may be unavoidable.

Current estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations likely to be reached without aggressive action to limit greenhouse gas emissions are far higher – from 550 ppm to as much as 1000 ppm in the next hundred years.

FICTION: Because of the uncertainty of climate models, it is extremely difficult to predict exactly what regional impacts will result from global climate change.

FACT: According to the IPCC, certain climate trends are highly likely to occur if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate or increase: sea level will rise; droughts will increase in some areas, flooding in others; temperatures will rise, leading to heat waves becoming more common and glaciers likely to melt at a more rapid rate.

Regional impacts are very likely to occur, but exactly when and what they will be is harder to predict.

This is because:

1) regional climate models are more computer intensive than global climate models – they take longer to run and are more difficult to calibrate, and

2) many non-climate factors contribute to impacts at regional levels. For example, the risk of mosquito-borne illnesses like Dengue fever and malaria may rise due to increased temperatures, but the actual likelihood of infection will depend greatly on the effectiveness of public health measures in place.

A Better World Climate: How Do We Get There From Here?

As has been stated previously, there are a great many unanswered questions about global warming. We wonder whether or not there really is an anthropogenic global warming or the threat of one because we don't have the perfect climate model to tell us so. And we don't have this model because we don't understand what is going on; we don't understand how the atmospheric system interacts with the oceans, the terrestrial biosphere, the cryosphere, or any of its other contributing factors. Therefore, the research that should be first and foremost in our minds is that to better understand the rich interrelationships between these bodies as well as the various features of each that may not be well understood. The effect of clouds, for example, on warming and vice versa are not understood very well. Do they simply cool by reflecting heat back to space, or is their role more complex than that? What effect does each shape and size of cloud have? What outside factors have an effect upon cloud formation? And, most importantly, how can we best relate these effects into GCMs? 

Likewise, aerosols are in need of study. Do they simply cause cooling by reflecting solar radiation back out into space, or, as one researcher stated, is that effect canceled out by heating through reflection of terrestrial radiation back to earth and give their real cooling effect by fortifying clouds with water droplets, giving them a higher albedo? 

Are variations in solar radiation and sunspot cycles behind part or all of the perceived global warming? Could there be changes in the sun's energy output that would cause warming such as some have observed? 

How does the tropical ocean interact with global atmospheric circulation, given that tropical cyclones (hurricanes) form there? Are there any special processes at work there that would affect the global warming theory? Likewise, how do the atmosphere, the ocean, and sea ice interact at high latitudes? 

What, exactly, is the terrestrial biosphere's place in the carbon cycle? How much CO2 does different types of vegetation, soil, or rock absorb? If CO2 is shown to be a substantial problem, would there be any way to make parts of the terrestrial biosphere take on more CO2? What effect would that have on the various ecosystems involved? 

And on and on the potential questions go. As can be seen above, there are a lot of different directions global warming research can go in and is going in. All of these would be helpful in trying to better determine the climatic direction we as a planet are headed in. But there is one other dimension to this attempt to better understand global warming: the modeling. Currently, even the most sophisticated and encompassing of the GCMs is incredibly crude and oversimplified compared to the actual atmospheric system and its feedbacks. And so, given new findings in research related to above topics and others, we must continue to update the models. We must keep working on the models, improving them, until flux corrections or "fudge factors," as they are called, are unnecessary to make them properly predict today's conditions. As computer technologies continually become smaller and faster and more capable of complex systems, we must keep shrinking the scale of the models and bringing in more variables to account for or better, more detailed understanding of the existing variables. To have a perfect model, every variable, every ocean eddy and sulfate particle would have to be accounted for. While this is improbable as a state of modeling, we can continue to try to better explain what is going on and how things are connected and interrelated by bringing bigger and better understandings of atmospheric intricacies to the modeling table. 
Concluding statements:
Unfortunately for these global climate change researchers, the computer industry is not moving nearly fast enough for this research. In many ways, climatologists are waiting on the computer industry to build more powerful supercomputers so they can make more complex models to take advantage of that computing power. And yet, there is at least a small advantage to waiting: many valuable studies being conducted with innovative, legitimate methods simply haven't been collecting data long enough to be as useful as possible. Satellite data is a good example of this. If we wait, the data will be better.
And so, we can see that the science behind global warming is far from settled. Much is not known and conflicting theories abound, as they often do in scientific forums. New ideas and new studies keep the science of global climate change going, keep it second guessing itself, keep it looking for newer, better ways to explain what's going on. In the end, global climate change may be a way for science to prove it can work well even under the most uncertain of circumstances.